Compound Risk Analysis of Natural Hazards and Infectious Disease Outbreaks

This study explores the potential impacts of compounding risk between natural hazards and infectious disease outbreaks such as the recent COVID-19 pandemic in the Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation (CAREC) region.Compound risk occurs when two or more shock events overlap, inducing additional pressure on social and physical vulnerabilities. As part of the study, scenarios of a natural hazard occurring during an outbreak are created for each CAREC country. The study concludes that compound risk may pose a challenge for the CAREC region in terms of elevated costs of response due to higher operational complexity, longer timelines required for reconstruction, and higher procurement costs resulting from supply interruptions or price shocks. It is therefore important to consider compound risk when investing in disaster risk management.